Forward Oregon

After taking some body blows earlier this week for his hypocritical position on the DSCC, the bleeding doesn’t stop with new criticism from PolitickerOR on Novick’s political outsider theme:

Now, wait a minute. Isn’t Novick the guy who worked inside the D.C. beltway for years at the Department of Justice? Did he not just host a fundraiser in D.C., trying to court the same kind of political insiders that are lining up with his primary nemesis Jeff Merkley? Is he not same the guy who worked for years on several Democratic “establishment” campaigns including Governor Ted Kulongoski’s first go around? Steve Novick, an outsider to Oregon politics? Please.

The theme, an attempt to harness the change wave, creates problems in and of itself. Running against Jeff Merkley’s dynamite resume and impressive institutional support, Novick, who has never served in elected office, has simultaneously trot out his insider credentials to convince voters of his experience, and push the outsider messaging to rationalize why he has so far failed to garner significant national and state wide support from players in the race. Additionally, his outsider messaging is designed to play to those who have a insatiable hatred for anything establishment. The line Novick must walk is a thin one. His insider credentials contradict his outsider message, but both are needed for him to win voters, lest they see what lies behind the curtains.

Furthermore, the real danger that Novick faces with his outsider messaging is that if he does win the nomination, he will not be able to distance himself from his criticisms of crucial organizations. As noted elsewhere, Novick’s fundraising has been quite poor thus far. If Novick wins the nomination, he desperately needs the DSCC to bail him out to even have a chance at beating Smith. Furthermore, the DSCC’s independent expenditures for Merkley, coupled with their refusal to meet with Novick, is telling. The message the DSCC is sending is Gordon Smith is vulnerable, but we only think Merkley can beat him, and they likely have unreleased polling data to back that up. Considering the number of seats that are realistically in play, the DSCC is indicating that they will likely go elsewhere with their funds if Novick is the nominee. Getting DSCC support, if he wins the nomination, is already uphill battle for the Novick campaign and imprecise rhetoric used to attack the DSCC at every turn doesn’t help.

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Tags: SteveNovick, DSCC, Outsider, Oregon Senate, 2008 Democratic Primary, OR-Sen, Jeff Merkley, PolitickerOR

Underdog Oregon Senate candidate Steve Novick’s primary opponent, Speaker Jeff Merkley, gets DSCC support. It is well known, we get it, Novick and his supporters aren’t happy about it. So yesterday, when the amount of DSCC assistance was reported, Novick’s fundraising appeal was no surprise:

I need your help to tell the D.C. establishment that Oregon’s primary election isn’t for sale….
Your contribution of $100 right now will help make that happen and send a message back to Washington: Oregon’s elections are not for sale!

However, I’m sure Novick didn’t expect the blow back to be as big, as national blogger and commentator, Senate 2008 Guru, took him to school:

If Mr. Novick is true to his principle (and isn’t just trying to take a quick shot at Speaker Merkley for enjoying some establishment support) that Oregonians, and only Oregonians, should be the ones to pick the nominee, and out-of-state fundraising is contradictory to that principle, will Mr. Novick agree to return every financial contribution to his campaign that comes from outside of Oregon? Surely, he wouldn’t want the financial contribution of a Washingtonian or Californian impacting the electoral decision of Oregonians. Will Mr. Novick further eschew financial support from the DSCC should he win the Democratic nomination (and willingly put himself at a major financial disadvantage against Gordon Smith, who will no doubt enjoy some support from the NRSC)?If Mr. Novick isn’t willing to return every out-of-state financial contribution, then this alert rings hollow. If Oregonians alone should pick the nominee, and Mr. Novick extends that sentiment to financial support, he ought to return every contribution that has come in from outside of Oregon, lest his charge seems hypocritical, like the argument of a candidate who shuns “establishment” support not for any principled reason against it but rather for no better reason than he simply lacks “establishment” support.

The Guru is right on with his comments. If Novick does indeed win the nomination, he will need the DSCC to bail him out with huge amounts of cash, to shore up his awful fundraising efforts, which only garnered $125k in Quarter 3. It is hypocritical for Novick to say that the DSCC is trying to buy the election and then if he wins go Oliver Twist begging them for money to help Novick buy the election the day after. If you believe the DSSC is buying the election, they either should get to buy the election or not. Primary or general it doesn’t matter.

Novick continuing these diatribes will only further Gordon Smith’s lines of attack against Novick. If Novick accepts the DSCC support needed to win, he would be participating in, what he calls, selling the election. No matter which election or which office your running for, hypocrisy is always a huge issue with voters. Novick needs to make a decision: either the DSCC and out of state help is evil or it isn’t. He can’t have it both ways. Novick should return all out of state money and pledge not to take anymore, or he should discontinue this attack against the DSCC and Merkley.

Forward Oregon asked the Novick campaign for a comment on the Senate 2008 Guru article, as of yet they have not responded. When or if they do I will update with their take on the issue.

UPDATE: Novick Campaign Manager Jake Weigler just got back to me.

When asked if Novick would return and forgo out of state funding to comply with his criticism:

“Unilaterally disarming by refusing to accept money from outside Oregon would do nothing to address the DSCC’s attempt to put their thumb on the scale in this primary.”

Also when asked if they would accept DSCC funds in the general: “Of course once the Democratic primary is complete, assistance from the DSCC is no longer a Democratic Party institution favoring one Democratic candidate over another – it is help in defeating a Republican. That assistance is completely consistent with the mission of electing more Democrats to the U.S. Senate.”

So, as Senate 2008 Guru suggests, Novick’s stance is clearly not principled, but merely a cheap ploy. Further, I don’t understand how Weigler can suggest that the DSCC would pick the wrong candidate for Oregon in the primary, but would pick the right candidate in the general. It seems like either the DSCC doesn’t know whats best for us, or it does.

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Tags: SteveNovick, DSCC, Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen, 2008 Democratic Primary, Senate 2008 Guru

Want to get together with some of the brightest progressive minds in Oregon and talk about the future of our state?  Want to kick it with the amazing PolitiCorps Fellows from all across the country and the Bus Project volunteers from right here in Oregon?

The Bus Project is launching Rebooting Democracy, which is going to be sweet this year.  2008 is gonna be nuts, so the Bus Project is going to get you prepared with a full weekend of assorted awesomeness including:

- In-depth trainings and workshops
- Ballot Measure Breakdowns & Video Spoofs
- Innovative Policy Panels
- Leadership Lunches
- Unparalleled Networking
- First-Rate Speakers
- Candidate Debates & Fashion Show
- Signature Late-Night Festivities

Furthermore, the Bus is premiering :

Progressive Policy Battle Royale, a one of a kind policy caucus, and your chance to get face-to-face with the most innovative policy work in our fair state. Come share your ideas and tell folks what you think of theirs.

PLUS, a special candidate-focused Sunday program. We’ll take an in-depth look at all the upcoming statewide races, and we’ll close out the weekend with a lively Secretary of State Debate!

 
Register now: http://www.RebootingDemocracy.com.  If you want to get nominated leave me a comment and I will nominate you. It is going to be a blast. All the cool kids are doing it

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Tags: BusProject, Rebooting Democracy, Fun

Recently, the Oregonian published an editorial, advocating a move to a nonpartisan Secretary of State.  The Oregonian uses the majority of the article to argue that Democratic groups like Act-Blue and the SoS Project, as well as Oregon SoS Bill Bradburry are undermining fair elections.  Yet, the article only briefly mentions Kathrine Harris’ botched and unethical handling of the 2000 election, and omits any mention of the thousands of voters she illegitimately stripped from voter rolls.  Similarly, the article fails to criticize the significant ethical and legal problems of Ohio SoS Ken Blackwell, who, at the same time as being Bush’s campaign co-chair, was using voter suppression tactics in Democratic areas of the state, during the 2004 election.  Despite the Oregonians assertions, this is has been a Republican problem.

With the potential for the appearance of impropriety from similar Republicans, shouldn’t the SoS be nonpartisan?  The argument appears strong, until you dig to the second level.  Consider if removing the R or D next to a candidates name actually remove partisanship from the candidate or the office?  Probably not.  In order to mount a well funded state wide campaign, a candidate would either have to be independently wealthy or have been in partisan politics long enough to establish the requisite fundraising networks.  Therefore, it is likely that successful SoS candidates would have a partisan bent.  That being so, is it really better to hide partisan affiliations from voters?  Voters should not have to do significant amounts of research to uncover these affiliations.  We should just call a spade a spade.

Finally with Oregon’s SoS being a heartbeat away from the Governor’s Office does one really want voters kept in the dark about what side they are on? Furthermore, as Jeff Mapes reports, the SoS candidates have very different visions of how the office should function.  According to Mapes, State Sen. Rick Metsger wants to use the position as a bully pulpit for speaking out on other issues, yet, according to Politickeror he thinks that the position should be nonpartisan.  Those two roles are not compatible, as to effectively use a bully pulpit, one must speak out against those in government and elsewhere, which would create the same questions of impartiality that having a partisan SoS does.

What we need is to do is elect a good Secretary of State who follows the law, not hide crucial information from the voters. We should keep the Secretary of State a partisan office.

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Tags: Secretaryof State, Jeff Mapes, Oregonian, Rick Metsger, elections

Just before the Thanksgiving weekend began, AFSCME Council 75 endorsed Jeff Merkley’s candidacy in the Oregon Senate Democratic primary, becoming the third union both to make an endorsement in the race and to support the Speaker. As someone who grew up in a union household, I wanted to analyze the impact of the current and potential future labor endorsements on the race.

Oregonian columnist Jeff Mapes made some astute observations about the possible path of the Oregon Senate race:

1)If Merkley can out-raise Novick (very possible) and win the major labor endorsements (tougher), he can probably easily shrug off anything Novick will throw at him. Democrat Ted Kulongoski won the Oregon AFL-CIO endorsement for governor in 2002 and raised enough money that he was able to easily defeated two pretty strong primary rivals, Jim Hill and Bev Stein.

Oregon AFSCME represents approximately 22,000 workers and along with the Oregon Education Association (OEA) and Service Employees International Union round out the three biggest politically active unions in Oregon. Therefore, AFSCME’s endorsement is significant for several reasons:

1. Troops on the ground: Merkley scores twice here by both increasing the number of people pounding pavement for his campaign, and at the same time denying Steve Novick his primary opponent of volunteers. Novick is likely to be outspent significantly in the primary, so he must build huge statewide grassroots campaign to compete. One of the best ways to build that grassroots campaign is to be flooded with volunteers from labor groups. AFSCME’s endorsement suggests that a labor based grassroots movement supporting Novick won’t happen.

2. Leading trend indicator: AFSCME made a strong case in their endorsement that Merkley’s solid pro-union work as Speaker counted more than campaign promises without the legislative record to back it up. The language in the endorsement and subsequent media must concern Novick about the possibility of picking up any significant labor endorsements. Merkley’s 100% rating from AFSCME during the last session mirrors other labor organizations, like the AFL-CIO, who rated Merkley highly for accomplishments like House Bill 3339 which ensured unemployment rights for locked out workers. Therefore, the early endorsement from AFSCME could represent the beginning of labor endorsing Merkley.

3. Message killer: Novick has been pushing a narrative that he fights for working people and the little guy. If labor lines up behind Merkley, voter’s will question the central narrative of Novick’s campaign. Labor backing Merkley would leave Novick with a choice, either abandon the central narrative of the campaign or continue claiming that he is the champion of working people despite the labor movement lining up behind his. Neither choice is appealing and the ramifications from either could be devastating in the primary.

4. Lack of political capital: Novick’s work on ballot measures was tied to unions, who often funded his organizations. If Novick cannot call in his favors from those who know him best, it brings into question the prudence of anyone with significant clout backing him.

It is true that AFSCME may be just one union. However, in the primary campaign it has significance. Especially if AFSCME’s endorsement is the beginning of a trend of labor endorsements for Merkley, it could establish a lead that coupled with a probably significant fund raising advantage that is impossible for Novick to overcome.

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Tags: OregonSenate, Jeff Merkley, AFSCME, Steve Novick, OR-Sen, Democratic Primary, Labor

Today, November 22, marks the one year anniversary of the day that Logan Will left us and I want to give thanks for having the chance to call him a friend.

Logan was everything that a good Democrat and great friend should be. He was humble, unbelievably intelligent, kind, compassionate, articulate, funny, and loyal. Logan was a good Democrat. Together we served as officers of the Willamette College Democrats and as campaign staff for Democratic legislative candidates. In 2006, the campaign I was managing was fraught with problems and Logan was always there, someone to talk to with sage advice, who could in a moment kindly point to the folly of my ways. We spent many summer nights that year scouring over C+Es, talking about who was up, who was down, where we were, and where we were going to be. Where we were going to be was such an essential part of every conversation, because Logan was one of those people that you planned to have in your life. The last time we I saw Logan, we had dinner and planned the 2008 election cycle. He was going to manage a campaign, and I would be his field director. I would blindly follow Logan into battle because he had more than enough intelligence and an more than accurate enough moral compass for the both of us.

Beyond politics we shared the addictions of debate and baseball. We talk about rounds and trade rumors, team politics and the standings. Despite never having a drink, he came to every single one of my parties. He knew they were important to me and would put that first. One time I told him that if he didn’t come to my party I would drunk dial him and talk to him about the Mariners starting rotation. I did that twice the first time he was on my porch and gave me grief for calling him even though he was coming to the party. The second was four days before he died. I was visiting my little brother at college and we were going to go out for the night. I called Logan to let him know that despite it really not being practical for him to come, there was a party and I would spare him my drunkenness but he would have to talk to me about the M’s rotation. Our last conversation mirrored almost every conversation we had meandering from Frank Thomas’ contract, to how the debate team was doing, back to baseball, to politics, and then ending with not a promise to spend more time together when I got back next semester.

Logan represented most of what I deem to be virtuous and I try to live up to his standard, though, I usually end up quite short. He was an amazing friend. I miss him very much and am thankful of the time I was lucky enough to have with him.

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Tags: LoganWill, friendship, Thanksgiving

Today the American Federation of State, County, Municipal Employees endorsed Jeff Merkley for United States Senate. The vote of confidence by one of labors biggest players 6 months before the primary clearly says something about the battles Jeff Merkley fought and won for labor both as Speaker and in the minority.

For those of you who don’t have much knowledge of AFSCME I have a promotional video:

I love that video, it was one of the highlights of my summer! I really couldn’t resist.

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Tags: AFSCME, Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen

On Saturday, Oregonian columnist Jeff Mapes, commented on Chris Cillizza’s latest Senate rankings on his blog. Mapes asserts that sliding from 6 to 7 in Cillizza’s rankings is an up tick for Gordon Smith’s stock. However, Mapes narrative is manufactured.

Mapes remarks:

So on to this month’s results in Oregon…where Republican incumbent Gordon Smith apparently is looking a wee bit more re-electable. His seat has slipped from the sixth most endangered to seventh. As Cillizza explained:

National Democrats are convinced that Sen. Gordon Smith is headed for defeat next November. Last month they released a poll conducted for the DSCC [Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee] that showed 30 percent of the sample planned to vote to reelect Smith while 41 percent either were open to considering someone else (25 percent) or were set on voting to “replace” Smith (16 percent). The problem for Democrats at the moment is that their preferred candidate — state House Speaker Jeff Merkley — hasn’t wowed just yet. Merkley’s $294,000 raised in the third quarter was only OK, and he continues to be dogged by liberal activist Steve Novick’s primary challenge. We expect Merkley to win the primary relatively easily, but Novick can make trouble for Merkley on the left. This race could well move up The Line in the coming months, but we just don’t see it yet.

Unfortunately for Sen. Smith, that analysis is faulty. This month’s new polling released by the DSCC showing only 30% of respondents saying that they would vote to re-elect Smith. Furthermore, concerns about the Democratic field have not changed. The threat that a messy primary derails Merkley is no more probable this month than any other month where Novick has taken pot shots at Merkley. Merkley’s fundraising numbers have not been reported this month and were trending upward as the last quarter ended, suggesting that a full quarter’s fundraising would be more impressive. Other than the fundraising Gordon Smith is no safer than last month.

Then why change the ranking? Cillizza says:

6. Minnesota: The more we talk to strategists on both sides of the aisle, the more convinced we are that we’ve been underestimating Sen. Norm Coleman’s vulnerability.

The rankings are comparative, rather than a direct judgment on Smith’s re-election prospects. The viability of Democrats in Minnesota is inconsequential to the Oregon Senate race. Both Democratic candidates in Minnesota are heavy hitters with fundraising and would not likely draw funds earmarked by the DSCC for Oregon. So does Cillizza’s ranking represent any true change to Smiths’ stock? No

Then why report on it? Maybe because American media would much rather report on the horse race than substantive policy issues. Jeff Merkley’s policy platform went up on his website, yet no reporting was done on that. Merkley came out against Gordon Smith’s vote on the Peru Free Trade Act, yet Mapes didn’t cover that. Instead, Mapes would prefer to participate in echo chamber politics reporting on what a columnist writes, claiming it represents a change of stock for Gordon Smith.

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Tags: GordonSmith, OR-Sen, the Fix, Jeff Mapes, Jeff Merkley

As noted both here and elsewhere Gordon Smith, has gotten in a little trouble by using his Senatorial franking privileges to send Portland mail lauding his work with Hillary Clinton and forgetting to send it to conservative Eastern Oregon. Since franking privileges are fairly obscure, I thought I would discuss them here.

Franking,the ability to send free mail concerning one’s official duties, is a holdover from British rule, dating to the original creating of the British General Post Office in 1660. In the US franking predates the country, as the First Continental Congress granted its members franking privileges and the First United States Congress granted franking privileges in its first session. Early on franking privileges were reffered to as Franklin privileges, after Benjamin Franklin, the first Postmaster General. In the 1870s, franking was briefly banned. Exceptions soon made that ban meaningless, and full privileges were restored in the 1890s.

Currently Senate Rule XL governs Senator’s franking privileges. In terms of mass mailers, there are several restrictions that can be found in the Senate Election Law Manual:

5) It is the intent of the Congress that a Member of or Member-
elect to Congress may not mail as franked mail—
(A) mail matter which constitutes or includes any article, ac-
count, sketch, narration, or other text laudatory and com-
plimentary of any Member of, or Member-elect to, Congress on
a purely personal or political basis rather than on the basis of
performance of official duties as a Member or on the basis of
activities as a Member-elect;

Considering that Senator Smith did not include any bill numbers as is customary of such fanked mail, one could make a good argument that some claims violate this law. Smith’s claim that he is fighting for additional head start funding is especially problematic, considering that according to OpenCongress.org
Smith has not sponsored or co-sponsored any legislation about Head Start during the 110th Congress. At the same time such luminaries as Orin Hatch are co-sponsors of the Head Start reauthorization.

Look at the flier, and decide for yourself.

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Tags: OR-Sen, Gordon Smith, Franking, Head Start

If you were Gordon Smith, with an unhappy base and vulnerable, would you send an a direct mail piece to Eastern Oregon bragging about working with Hillary Clinton? Neither would I. However, a mailer claiming exactly that showed up in Portland mailboxes about two weeks ago. Even better, Smith used Congressional franking privileges and tax payer money, to send this flier.

Today, Democratic Senate candidate, Speaker Jeff Merkley, is showing the voters the difference between the red Gordon and blue Gordon. Merkley is sending the mailer, intended to go to deep blue Portland, to very red Eastern Oregon. Accompanying Smith’s borderline illegal mailer, was a letter from Merkley, hitting Smith hard for flip flopping:

The enclosed brochure was mailed from Smith’s U.S. Senate office at taxpayer expense. In it he touts work he claims to have done with two prominent Democrats: our other Senator, Ron Wyden, and Senator Hillary Clinton. Smith likes to tell people in Portland that he works closely with Hillary Clinton. Does he talk about his work with prominent Democrats like Hillary Clinton when he’s in your town?

That isn’t the way I will run my campaign. I’ll stand by my principles, no matter what. I won’t pretend to be anyone other than who I am, no matter which part of the state I might be visiting. That’s what a Senator for all Oregonians owes to the people he represents.

Hundreds of conservative voters will find that letter and Gordon Smith’s mailer in their mailboxes in the coming days. I have never lived in Eastern Oregon, but I bet that the people there feel just as strongly that the taxpayers shouldn’t finance Gordon Smith’s spin machine. Fortunately, Jeff Merkley is presenting Oregon voters with a straight shooting alternative.