Endorsements in the Oregon Senate Race: What To and What Not To Do

Steve Novick told the press late last week that his campaign had a “significant endorsement” to announce this morning. The Novick mouthpiece Loaded Orygun said that the endorsement would be so important that it would say:

“no, THIS is the guy to back, and it starts with me.” (emphasis theirs)

There are few politicians left, since all the statewide officeholders have already endorsed Merkley, that would qualify as that person. Former Governor John Kitzhaber, would qualify as that person. Rumors swirling around, coupled with Novick’s announcement, brought Kitzhaber’s name to the forefront of a very short list. 11 AM rolled around and those rumors proved to be false. The Novick camp announced that former Congressman Les AuCoin was endorsing Novick, along with other previously known endorsements.

i had intended to spend this blog post talking about how a Kitzhaber endorsement could change the race and give Novick props for earning it. Unfortunately, Novick didn’t earn the endorsement and instead over sold an endorsement of minor importance. Congressman AuCoin hasn’t been a significant player in Oregon politics since his 1992 loss to Sen. Bob Packwood. His only other role since then was failing to be confirmed by a Democratic Senate to the State Forestry Board. The failure to be appointed shows that AuCoin is without a constituency. As the Oregonian says:

[T]hat wasn’t the case in 2005, when the governor named former congressman Les AuCoin, a Democrat who served in the U.S. House from 1975 to 1993. Republicans, the timber industry, rural Democrats and some conservationists bitterly opposed AuCoin’s nomination.

Such a diverse group of opponents, a low profile in the state, and failure to get past a Democratically controlled Senate indicates that AuCoin’s endorsment will not sway voters, insiders, nor donors to supporting Novick. Furthermore, over hyping the significants is a huge tactical blunder, it just serves as a reminder voters that Novick has failed to draw any game changing endorsements. The way the Novick campaign framed it makes one wonder why Novick cannot get a Kitzhaber, someone with real clout and constituents.

Novick’s announcement couldn’t even grab its own spotlight, as Jeff Merkley’s addition of two mayors, James Bernard of Milwaukie and Pat Sherman of Brookings, forced him to share the endorsement spotlight in the Oregonian. The contrast is stark. Merkley comes into the endorsement battle heavily favored because, unlike Novick, he has held elected office. That being said, he has shown how to play the game by systematically wraping up big endorsements. On the other hand, Novick has now promised more than he could give, diminishing his already inferior endorsement list. The way the Novick camp has pursued endorsements is a great example of what not to do, making people question your ability to truly get what you promised, a game changer.

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Tags: OR-Sen, 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary, Endorsements, Steve Novick, Les AuCoin, John Kitzhaber, Jeff Merkley,