Forward Oregon

The Hill has a new piece comparing the Presidential race to Oregon’s US Senate race.  The comparison is faulty, but comments on the race by noted handicapper Larry Sabato definitely have some weight:

“The conditions create the possibility for a Democratic win,” Sabato said. “That makes activists take their choices seriously in a primary.”

Still, Smith holds a substantial money advantage over both Democrats. He’s raised $7 million and has $4.4 million on hand. Thanks to his war chest and his endorsements, Merkley should win over Novick and would have a great shot at beating Smith, Sabato said. [emphasis mine]

As one of the most well respected race forecasters, Sabato’s opinion is very much a useful stand in for “in the beltway” thinking.  Using that premise, Sabato’s statement contains significant insight as Merkley is the only candidate that receives any endorsement or consideration from Sabato.  Sabato’s warning of activists to “take their choices seriously in a primary”, while playing up the Merkley war chest and endorsements suggests that if those qualities cannot be replicated by Novick. If Novick should become the nominee, support from the national party could be lacking that would support Merkley full force.

Merkley’s recent fundraising was outstanding as he posted $619,000, the best two-quarter (of which Merkley was only a candidate for a quarter and a half) totals a Senate challenger has ever had in Oregon.  The individual contributions were similarly impressive as 1230 Oregonians donated to Merkley in the Quarter 4, out of 2009 individual donors yeilding $550,000 from individuals.  Novick’s numbers were substantially less as Merkley has more cash on hand than Novick has raised for the entire race despite being in the race for months more. Coupled with Novick’s constant attacks on the DSCC, Novick’s lack of fundraising prowess brings into question whether the DSCC will quickly embrace him.

Jeff Mapes over at the Oregonian proposed this scenario:

The problem for the Democrats is that Merkley and Novick are going to be spending down their cash in their primary battle. What will the winner do if Smith goes on the attack with a big-dollar advertising campaign just weeks after the primary? That’s just what the senator did six years ago with a series of ads that dismembered Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, who didn’t have the money to respond.

Under this scenario I am confident that if Merkley was the nominee, the DSCC would step in and help out.  If Novick is the nominee, would the DSCC be willing to get over his attacks quickly enough to respond?

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Tags: OR-Sen, Jeff Merkley, Steve Novick, The Hill, Larry Sabato