Forward Oregon

Lets start with the last question first.  Why bother having the first United States Senate debate between the Democratic candidates?  It wasn’t on the radio, it wasn’t on television, hell it wasn’t even on the internet until days after the debate occurred.  There were a small handful of newspaper stories giving wrap ups, universally saying that it was a pleasant, cordial debate which did not differentiate the candidates.  Now having been on the debate team for a third of my life, I am usually not one to rag on having debates, but in this case the debate had such limited access to people that aren’t already decided political hacks (like a TJ from Loaded Orygun or myself, partisans who regularly comment on the race).   I am going to vote for whoever comes out of the primary regardless and have long since chosen my horse.

So on to who won the debate. Well we have to look at all of the candidates performances.  Merkley, the established front runner, had to put on a good but not spectacular performance in the debate to win.  He needed to keep Novick from having a substantially better night than he did.  Novick, the second major contender but significantly trailing Merkley in funds, endorsements, and organization, needed to wow people.  The expectations for Novick were high because he needed to establish himself as the only legitimate contender for the nomination who is a true progressive, a difficult task due to Merkley’s excellent progressive credentials.  Furthermore, with the Novick supporting Loaded Orygun chorus painting Novick as a soaring orator he had to contend with.  Novick didn’t do anything to dissuade these expectations with his own words in an interview with the Oregonian:

Novick plans an aggressive strategy, saying he’ll spend plenty of time pointing out why Smith should be replaced, but also why he’s better suited for the job than Merkley. He said differences between the two campaigns already have started to emerge…

“This is a time for candor, not caution,” Novick said. “I see Jeff Merkley running a very cautious campaign.”

So these are the starting points. Where did it end? Did Merkley have a good enough night that no one else could pull away? Yes, according to Ridenbaugh Press:

There weren’t, in sum, a lot of policy differences here; nor breakthroughs, or any particular crash or burn. Nor were there any fireworks; the candidates all focused their fire on Smith and President George W. Bush. … Merkley’s and Novick’s supporters have been blasting each other of late, but the candidates themselves did not at Pendleton, even going out of their way to agree on various specifics.

The Oregonian similarly had this to say:

They called for an end to the Iraq war, lambasted federal education policies and told a few folksy stories about themselves. They did little, however, to separate their positions from one another.

So from those sources it would look as if Merkley accomplished his goal of having a good performance and playing a little defense.  In a Swing State Project diary, the Novick camp is trumpeting their success in the debate based off of a throw in quote in the middle of the Eastern Oregonians coverage:

With so little difference in substance, style may influence some voters. And the edge from the first debate seemed - let’s repeat that, seemed - to favor Novick. [emphasis mine]

Yup, thats right. Novick contend that he met his mandate and expectations with a hedged sentence in the middle of only one account.  I am sorry, but if he thinks that not even getting a headline is going to generate the free media attention Novick needs to propel his candidacy, he is sadly mistaken.  Furthermore, this statement by the Eastern Oregonian in the same article is completely ignored:

However, he did miss an opportunity to separate his candidacy from Merkley’s. Novick didn’t emphasize distinctions of different solutions to the problems facing Oregon and our great nation.

Seems like Steve Novick might be the one with the cautious campaign now.  Playing evenly is not something that Novick can afford now, its late in the second half and time is running out.  Kicking field goals and running the ball isn’t going to allow Novick to overcome the deficit his campaign faces against Merkley.  When viewed in that context it is easy to see who did what needed to be done in the debate.

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Tags: OR-Sen, Steve Novick, Jeff Merkley, Pendleton Debate, 2008 Democratic Senate Primary