Smith’s Poor Polling Numbers and Publishing Pollster

Survey USA came out with their February Senate approval numbers today continuing the bad news for Oregon Senator Gordon Smith.  Smith watched his unfavorables climb for a third straight month to drop his approval rating to only +5.  Can you see the blood in the water?

I can.

First, to be under 50% at this point for an incumbent is trouble.  These numbers are important because Smith is sitting on a veritable war chest.  Therefore, either Democrat will need help from the DSCC to take on Smith in the fall.  These numbers will be helpful convincing Chuck Schumer that Oregon represents an excellent pick up opportunity, which is especially important this cycle, with so many appetizing seats in play.

Second, the Survey USA data shows Smith’s approval at its lowest with voters between 18-34.  Within that demographic Smith’s approval craters to only 40% and is trumped by his 47% disapproval.  Clinton’s inability to close the delegate gap in any meaningful way in last night’s Texas and Ohio primaries make it even more likely that Barak Obama is our nominee.  Obama both runs strongly in Oregon versus McCain and promises to bring hordes of new voters to the polls.  Those voters will likely be in the demographic currently turning out the least, 18-34 year olds.  If turn out among 18-34 year olds out paces Survey USA’s model  Smith’s overall approval will decline putting him in even more jeopardy.

While these numbers are certainly preliminary 8 months before a general election, the should be worrying Gordon Smith and his pollster Bob Moore.  Moore was doing some of his own work recently writing a piece analyzing  the Democratic presidential race for the Oregonian. Do you remember Bob Moore? Well this is the bio given at the bottom of page:

Bob Moore is president of Moore Information Inc, an opinion research firm with offices in Portland and the Washington, D.C., area. Founded in 1981, Moore Information has polled for hundreds of U.S. Senate, congressional, gubernatorial and ballot measure campaigns; international and local businesses; trade associations and government agencies.

This seems to forget something.  Maybe it forgets Moore’s anti-Mormon push polling that may have broken the law in New Hampshire or the fact that Moore is a Republican pollster?  As per a previous O article by Jeff Mapes:

Oregon’s premiere Republican pollster is embroiled in an unusual criminal investigation because of a poll he conducted in New Hampshire that included derogatory information about GOP candidate Mitt Romney and his Mormon religion.

New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte identified Bob Moore and his Portland firm, Moore Information, as the pollster behind a survey that has become a hot political issue in the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary Tuesday.

I think that this is relevant information. Readers deserve to know that Moore is a Republican pollster and that his ethics are questionable. The Oregonian know this, as they thought that Moore’s actions warranted the articles about it that they published.

Smith is in trouble. Despite Moore’s spin on the presidential race, an almost certain Obama nomination puts Smith even deeper in the red. These numbers should make Smith sweat.