Forward Oregon

The Oregon Voter’s Pamphlet is a key part of every campaign in Oregon.  Functionally, it is the cheapest mailer for a campaign, costing only a mere thousand dollars to go to every registered Democrat in the state.  Furthermore, unlike the direct mail that campaigns send  to voters that the average viewer only looks at for 7 seconds, the voter’s pamphlet is read by voters, especially in races where they are unfamiliar with the candidates.  The voters pamphlet is comprised of information furnished by the candidates, but because it is published by the state, the pamphlet has an air of legitimacy that other publications from campaigns do not.

So who are the winners and losers?  It is clear that Candy Neville is the biggest loser from not submitting a voters pamphlet statement.  Her poll numbers were a shock to most, out preforming expectations significantly and her performance in the last debate while shaky at times certainly wasn’t embarrassing.  However, a blunder like this clearly shows a candidate with out a solid campaign.  Jeff Merkley, as the only candidate that has been touting his pro choice credentials on the airwaves, will probably benefit as pro choice women who could have been much more tempted to vote for Neville, are less likely too now without a voters statement.  The other issue where this might have an effect is the War. The difference is that Merkley and Novick’s statements almost mirror each other, making it likely that anti war voters with whom Neville could have done well would split to both Merkley and Novick.

Not submitting a voters pamphlet statement as Jeff Merkley, David Loera, Steve Novick, Roger Obrist, and even the perennial out there candidate, fitness guru Pavel Goberman, did is a catastrophic mistake for a campaign.  That mistake is compounded even more by the fact that her name ID is so low.  The affects on other players in the race may be in question but we do know that when Democrats sit down with their voters pamphlet to decide who to vote for in the US Senate primary, we do know that Candy Neville’s name won’t be there.