Breaking: Candy Neville Did Not Submit a Voters Pamphlet Statement
April 18, 2008
The Oregon Voter’s Pamphlet is a key part of every campaign in Oregon. Functionally, it is the cheapest mailer for a campaign, costing only a mere thousand dollars to go to every registered Democrat in the state. Furthermore, unlike the direct mail that campaigns send to voters that the average viewer only looks at for 7 seconds, the voter’s pamphlet is read by voters, especially in races where they are unfamiliar with the candidates. The voters pamphlet is comprised of information furnished by the candidates, but because it is published by the state, the pamphlet has an air of legitimacy that other publications from campaigns do not.
So who are the winners and losers? It is clear that Candy Neville is the biggest loser from not submitting a voters pamphlet statement. Her poll numbers were a shock to most, out preforming expectations significantly and her performance in the last debate while shaky at times certainly wasn’t embarrassing. However, a blunder like this clearly shows a candidate with out a solid campaign. Jeff Merkley, as the only candidate that has been touting his pro choice credentials on the airwaves, will probably benefit as pro choice women who could have been much more tempted to vote for Neville, are less likely too now without a voters statement. The other issue where this might have an effect is the War. The difference is that Merkley and Novick’s statements almost mirror each other, making it likely that anti war voters with whom Neville could have done well would split to both Merkley and Novick.
Not submitting a voters pamphlet statement as Jeff Merkley, David Loera, Steve Novick, Roger Obrist, and even the perennial out there candidate, fitness guru Pavel Goberman, did is a catastrophic mistake for a campaign. That mistake is compounded even more by the fact that her name ID is so low. The affects on other players in the race may be in question but we do know that when Democrats sit down with their voters pamphlet to decide who to vote for in the US Senate primary, we do know that Candy Neville’s name won’t be there.
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bdunn
atleastimhonest
1.
verasoie | April 19, 2008 at 9:22 am
This is significant, not because Candy had any chance, but as you rightly state because it will send voters to the other candidates instead. If they were to split evenly, it would be a wash, but my suspicion is that Jeff will get the lion’s share of them because he is seen as the more conventional, mainstream candidate for those who care about the hot-button issues of womens’ reproductive rights, ending the war in Iraq, etc.
Thanks for posting this.
2.
torridjoe | April 19, 2008 at 2:22 pm
SUSA indicates Neville voters would go strongly to Novick, actually–if one accepts that Iraq is their most important issue. For those who have Iraq as their important issue, Novick took 29%. Those subgroups are subject to more error margin, but there’s no evidence on the ground that Neville voters would swing towards Merkley.
In any case, how many voters are we talking about being swung by the lack of a voter’s statement for Neville? 100? And I know Merkley is running behind Neville too, but really–hit pieces on Candy Neville?? Classy.
3.
Pavel Goberman | April 19, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Who wrote this article: I’m Pavel Goberman, he, not she.
Second I filed for US Senate first, in January 2007. I know why I’m running, because no one better than me could serve the People.
What mistake I did? Before doing something - I’m thinking.
I do not accept any donation from no one. Spent a few thousands my saving.
In the past I walked by thousands homes and talked to the People of Oregon. And. so many said that we need a candidate as me.
Some People in central Oregon so trust me and made signs of my name and put on the roads. And I didn’t know about it. Therefore I’m running to help people, to stop bribery, corruption and political / media prostitution.
“The U.S. health care system is broken and Oregonians have the power to fix it”. Same political talk, year after year, for many years.
To: We the People The Honorable Pavel Goberman - Candidate (D, but honest,
incorruptible) for US Senator FEC ID C00412700
“Stop Political Prostitution!”, OR ID # S4OR00065
P.O. Box 1664
Beaverton, OR 97075
(503)643-8348
http://www.getenergized.com/vote.html
getfit@getenergized.com allbefit@aol.com
What I could do for us: MY ISSUES, AGENDA, PLATFORM AND STRATEGY:
I’m running against G. Smith because he gave an Oath of Office but is ignoring, violating, not supporting and criminal contempting the Constitution of the USA (USC T 5 Section 2302). Amendment XIV, Section 3 says that “No one person shall be US Senator …. or hold any office who does not support the Constitution of the USA”.
Reduce property and income taxes for low and middle income families,
Protect seniors and veterans from abuse, neglect, scam and fraud. Nation owes them, but many Mobile Home Parks closed and seniors, veterans and poor kicked out without full compensation for loss. It is a brutal abuse seniors and veterans by Speaker Merkley.
Senator Smith also violates the Code of Ethics for Government Employees, which says: “Put Loyalty to the Highest Moral Principles, to Country above Loyalty to a Person, Party of Government Department”. And punishment for violation of this law should be at least 2 years prison term. So, G. Smith is not convicted yet criminal and must resign or must fired by you, the People.
I do not see anyone better than me could help to solve the state and national problems.
I’m in excellent health, have a life, business and military (Tank Army) experience.
I’m honest, incorruptible, with faith, integrity and high moral principles. Why Merkley and Novick do not say that too?.
Speaker Merkley and Novick accepting “donations, contributions” from many states, sold themselves and the People of Oregon to the special interests as banks, lawyers, medical organizations, unions and etc, paid the media more than $ 2 million and the media is talking about them a lot. Money, but brains get elected.
There is no need money in election: the PBS, including the OPB, receive $463 million from federal government / Taxpayers each year and must to inform and educate the People.
I have a plan of actions, Be a Judge, compare who will benefit you:
1) I do NOT accept money from no one, and will work for the People only,
2) I have a plan to win a war in Iraq without loss of our troopers and bring them home.
3) National security: protect our nation from a weapons of mass destruction. Lock up borders and organize to bring more immigrants to work here on request from employers.
4) Economy: stop moving jobs abroad. I have a plan to create more jobs in the USA. Help small businesses. Hire on merit basis, but hire US citizens first. Start in Oregon manufacture construction material fire resistant.
5) Make health insurance affordable for all citizens. Why Senators Wyden, Smith, Speaker of the House Merkley and all government employees have health insurance, but 600,000 Oregonians don’t? It is a discrimination against own People And same time the US government and Senator Smith spend $14 billions on some countries where people are saying: Death America. Help own People first!
Abolish health insurance companies and pay direct to doctors. It will reduce the health care cost.
6) Stop our dependency of foreign oil ASAP or it will cripple this country. I have a plan and promise to reduce very heavy traffic in all states, that will save fuel, people’s time and money, reduce pollution and global warming. Develop vehicles powered not by ethanol (it drives price of fuel and food too high), but by electricity and solar energy,
7) Car, truck and motorcycle insurance: it is a “Street Robbery”. If a person has no an accident - insurance companies must return 50% money back. Insure a person, but not his / her vehicles,
9) Reduce cost of drugs: demand to reduce, but NOT negotiate the cost of drugs,
10) Stop oil companies from making huge profits in 2007 by increasing gas prices as BP (ARCO) had profit $31.3 billion and Exxon $40.61 billion.
11) USPostalService is making $1 billion profit each year. Reduce postage rate,
12) Improve quality of education and discipline in schools, help teachers. English must be an official language. Student loans must be with no more than 3% interest and more grants for the poor,
13) Harder punishment for crimes. Protect victims. Police officers are risking theirs lives to catch who violates laws, but many of them released and do crime again. Members of Parole Boards will have legal and monetary responsibilities for crimes of released criminals,
Prisons must be not for entertainment. Prisoners must work and pay back to society.
14) Stop corporate welfare and some subsidy that will generate a big money for children health insurance,
15) Reduce government waste as to help countries where people are saying: “Death America”,
16) Protect the Flag of the USA from desecration. Many people died for this Flag,
17) Establish child care on all workplaces. Establish “Before and After School Program” in schools for children of working parents,
1
19) State and US Courts are robbing people: taking filing fees, but dismissing cases without jury trials. It is a crime (Amendment VII). And again: this crime is going on with permit of Speaker Merkley and Senator Smith. It is a rape of our Constitution. Legal Aid Services must help all citizens who need help. Lawyers may practice law without join bars.
20) Collecting agencies are harassing people, demanding money, making people criminals without court. I will stop it,
21) Telemarketing companies must stop bother people. If they want to give a message, they may send it by mail, or pay home owner for call,
22) I’m against NAFTA because it doesn’t benefit our nation,
23) We MUST establish a good relation with Russia for prevention of World War III, and I have a plan to do it. As US Senator I will talk on Russian to Putin and Medvedev (on Russian means: Bear) and do competition with them in wrestling, boxing, push ups and pull ups.
I promise to support the Constitution of the USA and fight against bribery, corruption and political prostitution.
If Merkley or Novick will be elected, there will be more deaths of our soldiers in Iraq and I will really worry about our national security: soon or later the weapons of mass destruction will drop on our country not from Iran only, but from other places as South America, or even from ships, and many millions Americans could die.
People of Oregon: all parties and Independents, ignore advertisements by Merkley and Novick, it is a talk of a big money of special interests. Think, read the Voter’s Pamphlet, change dirty diapers: put a new, “honest blood” in government, I much beneficial to you, state and nation than Merkley and Novick. Vote for me is investing in yourself, family, state and nation. If my name in not in your Ballot - write it in: Pavel Goberman (in US Senate section)
Government Must be Honest, By and For the People, and do that people want to do.
Pavel Goberman
P.S. If you know any woman with breast cancer in the early stage, you may give my phone number. I will try my best in possible prevention mastectomy through my unique methos of fitness. Free of charge.
P.G.
4.
bdunn | April 19, 2008 at 8:49 pm
Torridjoe:
This is in no way a hit piece. This is however an accurate account of a news item.
SUSA does not in any way suggest that anti war voters who are reading the voters pamphlet to decide their vote will swing to Novick as the poll makes no claim about what the 40% of undecideds will do. I gave ample reason that based solely on the voters pamphlet statement the difference between Novick and Merkley’s statements on Iraq is indistinguishable, where as Merkley is the only candidate that mentioned being pro choice.
Im sorry that you have to see everything as a hit piece.
5.
Charlie Burr | April 20, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Is this thread a minor part of cyber history? I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a Goberman emoticon before.
Bdunn, I disagree with your assessment of how Neville voters may break, but nice scoop here nonetheless.
6.
bdunn | April 20, 2008 at 8:35 pm
Thanks Charlie for the kind words. I would be interested to hear how do you propose they break. The way I tried to come up with the break is by pretending that I knew nothing about the race and just going on the voters pamphlet statement. I think that Novick’s statement reads better if you have been following his campaign but without knowing about HR 2 his statement on Iraq doesn’t come off as strong or even much different from Merkley’s. I think that vote by mail is a huge boon for cv candidates and in this election it is clear that that is Merkley.
7.
Glen HD28 | April 20, 2008 at 8:43 pm
It appears Mr Goberman did not understand the comment was about Ms. Neville, not him. He was only mentioned in passing.
However I did like this idea he proposed:
“We MUST establish a good relation with Russia for prevention of World War III, and I have a plan to do it. As US Senator I will talk on Russian to Putin and Medvedev (on Russian means: Bear) and do competition with them in wrestling, boxing, push ups and pull ups.
8.
Charlie Burr | April 21, 2008 at 9:25 am
Bdunn, my best guess — and it is a guess — is that Neville voters are those most likely to be drawn to unconventional campaigns. They seem like they’d be more sympathetic to outsider/change candidate profiles.
The Oregonian and OPB picked up the McCain thing this morning, btw.
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