Why Smith is Scared: Jeff Merkley Within the Margin in General Election Matchup
May 10, 2008
Gordon Smith decided to wade into the Oregon Democratic Senate Primary, yesterday, launching an ad attacking Oregon Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley. Some questioned Smiths motives, speculating why Smith would go after Merkley but speculation is no longer needed. A new Rassmussen poll tells us all we need to know. Jeff Merkley is the best Democratic candidate to take on Smith, and despite a contested primary Merkley is statistically tied with Smith in a general election match up. That is why Gordon Smith is going after Jeff Merkley, because he is trying get Steve Novick to do his dirty work, dispatching Smith’s strongest opponent in the primary.
Rassmussen’s polling coupled with SUSA’s earlier polling, paints a clear picture of the Oregon Senate race. The polling shows that early in the race both the Democratic primary and general election match ups were muddled by a lack of name identification. That was before Merkley had made any advertising buys. Now, Jeff Merkley is surging in the polls as voters learn about who he is, his accomplishments in the legislature, and his vision for Oregon and our nation. Voters are clearly responding to his message, with a 17 point improvement in the Survey USA primary poll in just three weeks, and gaining 15 points against Smith since February.
Jeff Merkley is getting the kind of traction that Gordon Smith fears. Smith has been cultivating his nice guy moderate image farce for years and will be able to brush attack dog Steve Novick, whose penchant making “undiplomatic” statements has already gotten him in trouble, out of the way with ease. So Smith, by hand picking Novick as his opponent, is trying to use Novick to do Smith’s most difficult task, defeating Jeff Merkley. There is no other compelling explanation to why Smith would go after Merkley and only Merkley in a Democratic primary.
Jeff Merkley will beat Gordon Smith. He is a fantastic legislator that has methodically passed good progressive legislation while Speaker, and even when he was in the minority. Merkley has a way of framing progressive values as shared values, that Smith won’t be able to undermine with attack ads. Merkley has also created a broad coalition of both local grassroots activists and national groups to take on Smith. Jeff Merkley is what Smith fears.
We cannot let Gordon Smith’s attacks on Democrats in a primary allow him to hand pick a weak opponent. As Oregon Democrats lets do our job before May 20th to make sure Gordon Smith trembles in fear for the next six months by nominating Jeff Merkley.
Entry Filed under: OR-Sen, bdunn. Tags: Attack Ads, Gordon Smith, Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen, Polling, Steve Novick.
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1.
torridjoe | May 10, 2008 at 2:05 pm
You know Novick’s within the margin as well, right? You do know how to apply the Moe, right?
2.
torridjoe | May 10, 2008 at 2:06 pm
“There is no other compelling explanation to why Smith would go after Merkley and only Merkley in a Democratic primary.”
Since he has gone after both, what the fuck are you talking about?
The other compelling explanation is he wants to rally support around Merkley so he’ll get the nomination. It’s what the national GOP did to get Kerry; they feared Edwards but attacked Kerry to get Dems to rally round.
3.
Kevin | May 10, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Before polls confirmed that Merkley has the momentum and is surging ahead, Smith ran an ad attacking both Merkley and Novick.
Now that Merkley is surging ahead Smith is attacking only Merkley.
4.
ben rivers | May 12, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Smith’s solo attack on Merkley can be looked at two ways:
1) He is setting up for a Merkley matchup in the general
or
2) He is cutting down Merkley because he feels better about a Novick matchup in the general.
And, there is still time left for him to go after Novick solo…
5.
BCM | May 20, 2008 at 10:19 am
May 10th….you’d think with the primary happening today you’d have something to say. Why the silence bdunn?
(38-33)