Forward Oregon

When President Obama is sworn in on January 20th, 2009 the fight to bring progressive change to America will not be over. We have already seen what a nasty partisan and obstructionist minority can do abusing the rules of the United States Senate to cause gridlock and block the common sense progressive policies that our country so desperately needs to get back on the right track. That is why I spend my volunteer hours trying to give President Obama 60 progressive votes in the US Senate by helping Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley defeat Republican Gordon Smith this fall.

Jeff has an amazing story. The son of a sawmill worker, Jeff was the first member of his family to go to college. After graduating from Stanford University and getting his masters at Princeton, Merkley was a Presidential Management Fellow in the Office of the Secretary of Defense where he did work safeguarding American military technology, verifying arms treaties, and assisting the U.S. delegation to NATO. Jeff continued his public service at the Congressional Budget Office, analyzing programs and policies for strategic nuclear weapons.

In his first diary on Kos (which shot up the rec list) Jeff talked about the importance of foreign policy experience:

I think these experiences in international affairs and national security is important. It would be a great thing if every senator and candidate for President had to have some international affairs experience. We might have avoided some of the biggest mistakes of the Reagan and current Bush administrations. It’s important to have senators who can distinguish between real threats and manufactured threats like those conjured up by Perle, Wolfowitz and President Bush.

Merkley moved back to Oregon and lead the Habitat for Humanity and the World Affairs Council but I met him during the 2006 election cycle. As Democratic Minority leader Jeff Merkley led a grassroots campaign to wrest control of the House from Republicans after 16 years of their oppressive control, something the pundits said couldn’t be done. I was privileged to be a part of both the Democrats efforts that won back the House in the 2006 election and in the 2007 legislative session. For those who were a part of those efforts, it couldn’t be more clear that we need the kind of leadership that Jeff Merkley showed in the United States Senate.

Jeff Merkley led a legislative session that was incredible. Having only a one vote majority, Merkley led a session that passed anti-discrimination legislation and domestic partnerships just two years after Oregon voters overwhelmingly put a ban on gay marriage in our constitution, put Oregon at the forefront of the fight against global warming by passing some of the toughest renewable energy standards in the country, the state version of the Employee Free Choice Act for labor rights, and radically expanding college financial aid which are just some of the policies that had people calling the session the most progressive and productive in years.

Now Jeff Merkley is running for US Senate. He is the right man for the job. After I did an interview with Merkley for my blog I wrote:

I have always been impressed with Jeff’s wonky side and today was another opportunity to see it, but it was more than that. The way Merkley interacts with the people that were asking the questions was really amazing. He is clearly smart, but unlike many people of his intelligence, he comes off being really accessible and someone that you can connect with. Often Merkley delves not only into the issue in great detail but honestly asks questions of those he is talking with, authentically caring about their opinion. I think this is a skill that makes him extraordinarily likable and will inspire both a lot of activists and a lot of regular people to get out on the campaign trail, building the kind of grassroots organization needed to take down Gordon Smith.

With Senator Obama’s campaign leading the way we need candidates that can run grassroots campaigns like Speaker Merkley has. Jeff has brought together a coalition spaning from the AFL-CIO, to SEIU, to the Council for a Livable World, to every Democratic State Representative, and to the Sierra Club to defeat Smith. Progressives are standing behind Jeff Merkley because, not only can he beat Gordon “I vote 90% of the time with Bush” Smith, but because once he is elected Speaker Merkley will bring his outstanding talent as a legislator to the table. President Obama is going to be able to lead our party with oratorical vision but he is going to need unrelenting progressive Senators like Jeff Merkley to forge good legislation that can really change this country.

When President Obama is sworn in on January 20th, 2009 the fight to bring progressive change to America will not be over. We have already seen what a nasty partisan and obstructionist minority can do abusing the rules of the United States Senate to cause gridlock and block the common sense progressive policies that our country so desperately needs to get back on the right track. That is why I spend my volunteer hours trying to give President Obama 60 progressive votes in the US Senate by helping Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley defeat Republican Gordon Smith this fall.

As many of you know there are only five more days for this quarter. The special legislative session took Jeff away from the campaign for about a month, so it is up to us to help the fundraising from the grassroots. My blog Forward Oregon started a Actblue page so please please give to an unbelievably deserving candidate. I am personally trying to raise 350 dollars on my Act Blue page by the end of the quarter and so I am going to match the first 100 bucks that is donated there. President Obama needs great Senators like Jeff Merkley to change America.

We need to see this picture in Washington D.C.:

The link to my Actblue page again

The Purple People Have Spoken! With a singular and united voice the Service Employees International Union choose to endorse Speaker Jeff Merkley for the United States Senate.  Despite a significant setback losing the OEA endorsement this last weekend, the Merkley campaign rebounded to win the crown jewel in the race for endorsements.  SEIU’s endorsement is unparalleled in this race in terms of getting boots on the ground, phones ringing, doors knocked, and voters persuaded.

The choice to endorse Jeff Merkley makes sense as Merkley has been a strong fighter for workers and the right to organize in the Oregon legislature.  Merkley was the only member of the House of Representatives to receive straight A+’s from SEIU for his outstanding work during the 2007 legislative session.  SEIU understands that putting someone in the United States Senate who has shown the ability to pass important protections for workers, like majority union sign up, is desperately needed.  Therefore, they turned to Jeff Merkley, the only candidate who has legislative experience fighting and expanding workers rights.

On the electoral end, the endorsement is huge.  SEIU was a force to be reckoned with during the 2006 election, winning every ballot measure that the SEIU took a position on and picking up 8 out of their 9 targeted legislative races.  Their only setbacks were HD-49, where Karen Minnis spent $125 a vote to protect her seat and a ballot measure (M47) that was invalidated by SEIU’s defeat of its companion measure (M46).  Huge victories on the TABOR Measure (M4 also show that when SEIU gets down to business in Oregon, they win.

From state results we know that SEIU is strong in Oregon politics, but it is even stronger the national arena.  The National Journal rated SEIU as the most successful interest group in national politics, batting a stunning .714 during the last election including, winning their two targeted Senate campaigns.  Having previously endorsed Senator Obama for President, SEIU’s endorsement could be an even bigger boon for Merkley.  If SEIU’s mailers for the primary successfully tie Senator Obama, who runs very well in Oregon, at the top of the ticket with Merkley farther down, the potential boost in the primary, let alone in the general, could be enormous.  If SEIU publishes a candidate slate mailer, as they usually do, it could bind Senator Obama and Speaker Merkley in the minds of voters, which is a very good position to be in. Overall, SEIU’s endorsement puts boots on the ground, joining other unions like AFSCME, the Longshoremen, the American and Oregon Nurses Association, UFCW, and the Oregon AFL-CIO to provide a veritable army of ground troops.

Check out the audio clip of Speaker Merkley and SEIU Local 503 Executive Director Leslie Frane talking about Merkley’s history as a strong fighter for working people and the endorsement on KPOJ.

Survey USA came out with their February Senate approval numbers today continuing the bad news for Oregon Senator Gordon Smith.  Smith watched his unfavorables climb for a third straight month to drop his approval rating to only +5.  Can you see the blood in the water?

I can.

First, to be under 50% at this point for an incumbent is trouble.  These numbers are important because Smith is sitting on a veritable war chest.  Therefore, either Democrat will need help from the DSCC to take on Smith in the fall.  These numbers will be helpful convincing Chuck Schumer that Oregon represents an excellent pick up opportunity, which is especially important this cycle, with so many appetizing seats in play.

Second, the Survey USA data shows Smith’s approval at its lowest with voters between 18-34.  Within that demographic Smith’s approval craters to only 40% and is trumped by his 47% disapproval.  Clinton’s inability to close the delegate gap in any meaningful way in last night’s Texas and Ohio primaries make it even more likely that Barak Obama is our nominee.  Obama both runs strongly in Oregon versus McCain and promises to bring hordes of new voters to the polls.  Those voters will likely be in the demographic currently turning out the least, 18-34 year olds.  If turn out among 18-34 year olds out paces Survey USA’s model  Smith’s overall approval will decline putting him in even more jeopardy.

While these numbers are certainly preliminary 8 months before a general election, the should be worrying Gordon Smith and his pollster Bob Moore.  Moore was doing some of his own work recently writing a piece analyzing  the Democratic presidential race for the Oregonian. Do you remember Bob Moore? Well this is the bio given at the bottom of page:

Bob Moore is president of Moore Information Inc, an opinion research firm with offices in Portland and the Washington, D.C., area. Founded in 1981, Moore Information has polled for hundreds of U.S. Senate, congressional, gubernatorial and ballot measure campaigns; international and local businesses; trade associations and government agencies.

This seems to forget something.  Maybe it forgets Moore’s anti-Mormon push polling that may have broken the law in New Hampshire or the fact that Moore is a Republican pollster?  As per a previous O article by Jeff Mapes:

Oregon’s premiere Republican pollster is embroiled in an unusual criminal investigation because of a poll he conducted in New Hampshire that included derogatory information about GOP candidate Mitt Romney and his Mormon religion.

New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte identified Bob Moore and his Portland firm, Moore Information, as the pollster behind a survey that has become a hot political issue in the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary Tuesday.

I think that this is relevant information. Readers deserve to know that Moore is a Republican pollster and that his ethics are questionable. The Oregonian know this, as they thought that Moore’s actions warranted the articles about it that they published.

Smith is in trouble. Despite Moore’s spin on the presidential race, an almost certain Obama nomination puts Smith even deeper in the red. These numbers should make Smith sweat.

On Monday, both Oregon Democratic US Senate candidates “endorsed” my candidate for President, Barack Obama. For both, John Edwards was their previous choice, but has long since departed the race. That was the end of the similarities, as Jeff Merkley gave a full throated endorsement of Obama, based on shared values and belief in the grassroots. Novick on the other hand, spent 13 paragraphs praising Hillary Clinton, repeated some of the worst smears against Obama, and doesn’t use the word “endorse” once. Whose “endorsement” would you rather have?

Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley, the co-chair of the John Edwards, was the headliner in the Oregon Edward’s leadership team’s recent endorsement of Obama. Jeff emphasized the shared values between the two:

“Barack Obama and I share something more in common than simply our determination to change America for the better,” said Speaker Jeff Merkley, “Both of us come from the grassroots, where real change is sewn… Both Senator Obama and I understand what it means to empower Americans house-by-house, community-by-community. That’s the reason I’m running for U.S. Senate – to put that kind of power back into the hands of everyday Oregonians again. And that’s the same reason I’m endorsing Barack Obama for President today.”

A solid rationale coming with the added bonus of the former Edward’s campaign’s help.

Lets compare Merkley’s approach to Steve Novick. Novick, who was recently outed as a former Nader supporter, was more disparaging towards Obama than in any other “endorsement” I have ever read:

I can recite the arguments against Obama in my sleep. No, his health care plan isn’t as good as Hillary’s; we do have to require everyone to have health insurance (or go with single payer), or the math doesn’t work. He’s voted for at least one ugly “tort reform” bill, and has made unnerving comments about the civil justice system. And yes, he did say very disturbing things about Ronald Reagan. Sure, the Clintons exaggerated it - but what does it mean to say that for years, the Republicans were the party of “ideas”? Slashing taxes for rich people is an original idea? And what does it mean to say people welcomed Reagan as a response to “the excesses of the ’60s and ’70s”? What “excesses”? Medicare? The Clean Air Act?…I might ultimately be disappointed, I’d rather be disappointed in new ways, rather than the same old ways.

[Hillary Clinton] knows, possibly better than Obama, what’s wrong with the country, and she knows what we need to do to fix it.
[emphasis mine]

While hitting someone in the face with a frying pan before saying that you support them is quit surprising, this quote from the Willamette Week’s Super Tuesday coverage should have given me a heads up that Novick’s penchant for attacking good Democrats extends beyond his primary opponent:

Even Novick, known for his direct talk despite his career as a political activist, waffled before finally naming his candidate.

“I go back and forth,” Novick said. “I suspect I’ll be disappointed with either one of them“

So why endorse a candidate if you think you think a candidate will disappoint you? I generally don’t like to write about peoples motives but one of the biggest Novick supporters on the internet did just that with Merkly’s endorsement, so lets go there.

Could it be that Novick is trying to run his campaign almost exclusively on the internet, yet he has failed to get traction on Daily Kos except when pimping presidential candidates (4 out of his top 10 most rec’ed diaries about or by Novick were presidential candidate diaries)?

Or maybe it is because he got word that his opponent had scheduled a press conference and was about to throw some real weight behind Obama and didn’t want to get outflanked?

Or maybe it was just another reason to have his internet goons attack Merkley for “disrespecting the legacy of John Edwards” (this from a candidate that didn’t join the Oregon for Edwards team or put forth any noticeable effort to get him elected)?

Or maybe it was what this hardcore Novick supporter claims:

Posted by: Daniel Spiro | Feb 25, 2008 6:58:36 PM I suspect Steve was simply trying not to piss off those of his supporters who feel passionately about Hillary

Man am I glad that we have Steve Novick in the race because he speaks truth to power and will always fight the good fight regardless of the consequences…. Oh wait never mind.

Time and time again, Steve Novick tries to present himself as a straight talker, a kind of liberal maverick, but when push comes to shove Novick is calculating, wish washy, and is never seen far from his immediate political interests, just like politics as usual. With friends like that, who needs enemies?