Forward Oregon

Steve Novick got his biggest endorsement thus far in the election, anti-tax activist, signature and ballot measure guru, racketeer Bill Sizemore.   In his ringing endorsement published in Willamette Week, Sizemore made sure to highlight Novick’s negativity that has permeated the Democratic campaign:

If I was a Democrat, [Novick]’s probably who I’d vote for….

Steve is acerbic. He can be very nasty….

Attacking is almost a reflex with him…

Clearly, it takes one to know one.  Sizemore’s endorsement really has little potential to bring Democratic voters into Novick’s camp, but it does show an interesting comparison.  Becky Miller, the former Sizemore employee whose decision to turn state’s evidence led to Sizemor’s conviction, examined the many similarities between Novick and Sizemore, the two ballot meausure political consultants turned candidates over at Preemptive Karma, which is a must read.

The Oregonian today has a front page story about the trials and tribulations of the Oregon GOP with the ridiculous headline “For Oregon GOP, only way to go is up.” The authors apparently don’t understated how much longer the Oregon GOP can continue to exist in total free fall, despite their article outlining the looming disaster to come.

The problem that the Oregon GOP faces is so deeply ingrained in the make up of the party that until one side scores a knock out:

“Who’s in charge?”

Reasons for the recent Republican tailspin abound. Among them: deep emotions among voters about the Iraq war; a failure to nominate moderates; confusion over who calls the shots within the party.

“Here’s my question,” says Robert Eisinger, a Lewis & Clark College political science professor who follows state politics. “Who’s the head of the Republican Party in Oregon? Who’s in charge? Never mind who’s the official party chairman, but who’s the leader?”

Some have tried to pin that label on Smith, but he’s not always on the same ideological page with the state party leadership. Some of the most conservative activists have turned hostile toward him for speaking out against the Iraq war and favoring hate crimes legislation.

Remember last March?  When the right was openly in revolt against Smith?  When Bill Sizemore was openly contemplating running a primary challenge against Smith?  The activist base that Lars Larson proselytizes to on his radio show loathe the mainstream moderates of the Oregon Republicans of yore.  The base of the modern Oregon GOP is in the Kim Thatcher/Linda Flores model who believe that government is evil except when it it pushing the morality of the religious right.

Having a presidential candidate that is still trying to make inroads with movement religious conservatives after dissing them in 2000 isn’t going to help either. While the article tries to paint a Republican party on the rebound, you have to look at the groups that are trying to resuscitate the dying party:

Two groups have formed, both aimed at re-energizing Republican politics in Oregon. One, the Oregon Leadership Roundtable, sought to bring together the disparate elements of the party — from business-oriented donors to social conservatives One of the group’s goals: Reduce the number of divisive primary battles.

Another, the Conservative Majority Project, is looking to shake up the party by boosting candidates who adhere to bedrock Republican values, such as property rights, lower taxes and individual responsibility.

The war to “save” the party is exactly what will keep them in this mess. Oregon Republicans are starting to realize that hating immigrants is not good for businesses that employ them, who you decide to be intimate with is irrelevant if you are a good employee, and trying to legislate values doesn’t go over well with young people or tolerant people. The fight will not be decided until there is a knock out, which can’t occur because on side has the money to fund the army and the other side provides the foot soldiers. The coalition has cracked and will not be put back together again for a long time. The emperor has no clothes.