The House of Labor and the Oregon Democratic Senate Primary

Just before the Thanksgiving weekend began, AFSCME Council 75 endorsed Jeff Merkley’s candidacy in the Oregon Senate Democratic primary, becoming the third union both to make an endorsement in the race and to support the Speaker. As someone who grew up in a union household, I wanted to analyze the impact of the current and potential future labor endorsements on the race.

Oregonian columnist Jeff Mapes made some astute observations about the possible path of the Oregon Senate race:

1)If Merkley can out-raise Novick (very possible) and win the major labor endorsements (tougher), he can probably easily shrug off anything Novick will throw at him. Democrat Ted Kulongoski won the Oregon AFL-CIO endorsement for governor in 2002 and raised enough money that he was able to easily defeated two pretty strong primary rivals, Jim Hill and Bev Stein.

Oregon AFSCME represents approximately 22,000 workers and along with the Oregon Education Association (OEA) and Service Employees International Union round out the three biggest politically active unions in Oregon. Therefore, AFSCME’s endorsement is significant for several reasons:

1. Troops on the ground: Merkley scores twice here by both increasing the number of people pounding pavement for his campaign, and at the same time denying Steve Novick his primary opponent of volunteers. Novick is likely to be outspent significantly in the primary, so he must build huge statewide grassroots campaign to compete. One of the best ways to build that grassroots campaign is to be flooded with volunteers from labor groups. AFSCME’s endorsement suggests that a labor based grassroots movement supporting Novick won’t happen.

2. Leading trend indicator: AFSCME made a strong case in their endorsement that Merkley’s solid pro-union work as Speaker counted more than campaign promises without the legislative record to back it up. The language in the endorsement and subsequent media must concern Novick about the possibility of picking up any significant labor endorsements. Merkley’s 100% rating from AFSCME during the last session mirrors other labor organizations, like the AFL-CIO, who rated Merkley highly for accomplishments like House Bill 3339 which ensured unemployment rights for locked out workers. Therefore, the early endorsement from AFSCME could represent the beginning of labor endorsing Merkley.

3. Message killer: Novick has been pushing a narrative that he fights for working people and the little guy. If labor lines up behind Merkley, voter’s will question the central narrative of Novick’s campaign. Labor backing Merkley would leave Novick with a choice, either abandon the central narrative of the campaign or continue claiming that he is the champion of working people despite the labor movement lining up behind his. Neither choice is appealing and the ramifications from either could be devastating in the primary.

4. Lack of political capital: Novick’s work on ballot measures was tied to unions, who often funded his organizations. If Novick cannot call in his favors from those who know him best, it brings into question the prudence of anyone with significant clout backing him.

It is true that AFSCME may be just one union. However, in the primary campaign it has significance. Especially if AFSCME’s endorsement is the beginning of a trend of labor endorsements for Merkley, it could establish a lead that coupled with a probably significant fund raising advantage that is impossible for Novick to overcome.

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Tags: OregonSenate, Jeff Merkley, AFSCME, Steve Novick, OR-Sen, Democratic Primary, Labor