Forward Oregon

Gordon Smith decided to wade into the Oregon Democratic Senate Primary, yesterday, launching an ad attacking Oregon Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley. Some questioned Smiths motives, speculating why Smith would go after Merkley but speculation is no longer needed.  A new Rassmussen poll tells us all we need to know. Jeff Merkley is the best Democratic candidate to take on Smith, and despite a contested primary Merkley is statistically tied with Smith in a general election match up. That is why Gordon Smith is going after Jeff Merkley, because he is trying get Steve Novick to do his dirty work, dispatching Smith’s strongest opponent in the primary.

Rassmussen’s polling coupled with SUSA’s earlier polling, paints a clear picture of the Oregon Senate race. The polling shows that early in the race both the Democratic primary and general election match ups were muddled by a lack of name identification. That was before Merkley had made any advertising buys. Now, Jeff Merkley is surging in the polls as voters learn about who he is, his accomplishments in the legislature, and his vision for Oregon and our nation. Voters are clearly responding to his message, with a 17 point improvement in the Survey USA primary poll in just three weeks, and gaining 15 points against Smith since February.

Jeff Merkley is getting the kind of traction that Gordon Smith fears. Smith has been cultivating his nice guy moderate image farce for years and will be able to brush attack dog Steve Novick, whose penchant making “undiplomatic” statements has already gotten him in trouble, out of the way with ease. So Smith, by hand picking Novick as his opponent, is trying to use Novick to do Smith’s most difficult task, defeating Jeff Merkley. There is no other compelling explanation to why Smith would go after Merkley and only Merkley in a Democratic primary.

Jeff Merkley will beat Gordon Smith. He is a fantastic legislator that has methodically passed good progressive legislation while Speaker, and even when he was in the minority. Merkley has a way of framing progressive values as shared values, that Smith won’t be able to undermine with attack ads.  Merkley has also created a broad coalition of both local grassroots activists and national groups to take on Smith.  Jeff Merkley is what Smith fears.

We cannot let Gordon Smith’s attacks on Democrats in a primary allow him to hand pick a weak opponent. As Oregon Democrats lets do our job before May 20th to make sure Gordon Smith trembles in fear for the next six months by nominating Jeff Merkley.

Survey USA came out with their February Senate approval numbers today continuing the bad news for Oregon Senator Gordon Smith.  Smith watched his unfavorables climb for a third straight month to drop his approval rating to only +5.  Can you see the blood in the water?

I can.

First, to be under 50% at this point for an incumbent is trouble.  These numbers are important because Smith is sitting on a veritable war chest.  Therefore, either Democrat will need help from the DSCC to take on Smith in the fall.  These numbers will be helpful convincing Chuck Schumer that Oregon represents an excellent pick up opportunity, which is especially important this cycle, with so many appetizing seats in play.

Second, the Survey USA data shows Smith’s approval at its lowest with voters between 18-34.  Within that demographic Smith’s approval craters to only 40% and is trumped by his 47% disapproval.  Clinton’s inability to close the delegate gap in any meaningful way in last night’s Texas and Ohio primaries make it even more likely that Barak Obama is our nominee.  Obama both runs strongly in Oregon versus McCain and promises to bring hordes of new voters to the polls.  Those voters will likely be in the demographic currently turning out the least, 18-34 year olds.  If turn out among 18-34 year olds out paces Survey USA’s model  Smith’s overall approval will decline putting him in even more jeopardy.

While these numbers are certainly preliminary 8 months before a general election, the should be worrying Gordon Smith and his pollster Bob Moore.  Moore was doing some of his own work recently writing a piece analyzing  the Democratic presidential race for the Oregonian. Do you remember Bob Moore? Well this is the bio given at the bottom of page:

Bob Moore is president of Moore Information Inc, an opinion research firm with offices in Portland and the Washington, D.C., area. Founded in 1981, Moore Information has polled for hundreds of U.S. Senate, congressional, gubernatorial and ballot measure campaigns; international and local businesses; trade associations and government agencies.

This seems to forget something.  Maybe it forgets Moore’s anti-Mormon push polling that may have broken the law in New Hampshire or the fact that Moore is a Republican pollster?  As per a previous O article by Jeff Mapes:

Oregon’s premiere Republican pollster is embroiled in an unusual criminal investigation because of a poll he conducted in New Hampshire that included derogatory information about GOP candidate Mitt Romney and his Mormon religion.

New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte identified Bob Moore and his Portland firm, Moore Information, as the pollster behind a survey that has become a hot political issue in the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary Tuesday.

I think that this is relevant information. Readers deserve to know that Moore is a Republican pollster and that his ethics are questionable. The Oregonian know this, as they thought that Moore’s actions warranted the articles about it that they published.

Smith is in trouble. Despite Moore’s spin on the presidential race, an almost certain Obama nomination puts Smith even deeper in the red. These numbers should make Smith sweat.

The Oregonian today has a front page story about the trials and tribulations of the Oregon GOP with the ridiculous headline “For Oregon GOP, only way to go is up.” The authors apparently don’t understated how much longer the Oregon GOP can continue to exist in total free fall, despite their article outlining the looming disaster to come.

The problem that the Oregon GOP faces is so deeply ingrained in the make up of the party that until one side scores a knock out:

“Who’s in charge?”

Reasons for the recent Republican tailspin abound. Among them: deep emotions among voters about the Iraq war; a failure to nominate moderates; confusion over who calls the shots within the party.

“Here’s my question,” says Robert Eisinger, a Lewis & Clark College political science professor who follows state politics. “Who’s the head of the Republican Party in Oregon? Who’s in charge? Never mind who’s the official party chairman, but who’s the leader?”

Some have tried to pin that label on Smith, but he’s not always on the same ideological page with the state party leadership. Some of the most conservative activists have turned hostile toward him for speaking out against the Iraq war and favoring hate crimes legislation.

Remember last March?  When the right was openly in revolt against Smith?  When Bill Sizemore was openly contemplating running a primary challenge against Smith?  The activist base that Lars Larson proselytizes to on his radio show loathe the mainstream moderates of the Oregon Republicans of yore.  The base of the modern Oregon GOP is in the Kim Thatcher/Linda Flores model who believe that government is evil except when it it pushing the morality of the religious right.

Having a presidential candidate that is still trying to make inroads with movement religious conservatives after dissing them in 2000 isn’t going to help either. While the article tries to paint a Republican party on the rebound, you have to look at the groups that are trying to resuscitate the dying party:

Two groups have formed, both aimed at re-energizing Republican politics in Oregon. One, the Oregon Leadership Roundtable, sought to bring together the disparate elements of the party — from business-oriented donors to social conservatives One of the group’s goals: Reduce the number of divisive primary battles.

Another, the Conservative Majority Project, is looking to shake up the party by boosting candidates who adhere to bedrock Republican values, such as property rights, lower taxes and individual responsibility.

The war to “save” the party is exactly what will keep them in this mess. Oregon Republicans are starting to realize that hating immigrants is not good for businesses that employ them, who you decide to be intimate with is irrelevant if you are a good employee, and trying to legislate values doesn’t go over well with young people or tolerant people. The fight will not be decided until there is a knock out, which can’t occur because on side has the money to fund the army and the other side provides the foot soldiers. The coalition has cracked and will not be put back together again for a long time. The emperor has no clothes.

As noted both here and elsewhere Gordon Smith, has gotten in a little trouble by using his Senatorial franking privileges to send Portland mail lauding his work with Hillary Clinton and forgetting to send it to conservative Eastern Oregon. Since franking privileges are fairly obscure, I thought I would discuss them here.

Franking,the ability to send free mail concerning one’s official duties, is a holdover from British rule, dating to the original creating of the British General Post Office in 1660. In the US franking predates the country, as the First Continental Congress granted its members franking privileges and the First United States Congress granted franking privileges in its first session. Early on franking privileges were reffered to as Franklin privileges, after Benjamin Franklin, the first Postmaster General. In the 1870s, franking was briefly banned. Exceptions soon made that ban meaningless, and full privileges were restored in the 1890s.

Currently Senate Rule XL governs Senator’s franking privileges. In terms of mass mailers, there are several restrictions that can be found in the Senate Election Law Manual:

5) It is the intent of the Congress that a Member of or Member-
elect to Congress may not mail as franked mail—
(A) mail matter which constitutes or includes any article, ac-
count, sketch, narration, or other text laudatory and com-
plimentary of any Member of, or Member-elect to, Congress on
a purely personal or political basis rather than on the basis of
performance of official duties as a Member or on the basis of
activities as a Member-elect;

Considering that Senator Smith did not include any bill numbers as is customary of such fanked mail, one could make a good argument that some claims violate this law. Smith’s claim that he is fighting for additional head start funding is especially problematic, considering that according to OpenCongress.org
Smith has not sponsored or co-sponsored any legislation about Head Start during the 110th Congress. At the same time such luminaries as Orin Hatch are co-sponsors of the Head Start reauthorization.

Look at the flier, and decide for yourself.

Blogged with Flock

Tags: OR-Sen, Gordon Smith, Franking, Head Start

If you were Gordon Smith, with an unhappy base and vulnerable, would you send an a direct mail piece to Eastern Oregon bragging about working with Hillary Clinton? Neither would I. However, a mailer claiming exactly that showed up in Portland mailboxes about two weeks ago. Even better, Smith used Congressional franking privileges and tax payer money, to send this flier.

Today, Democratic Senate candidate, Speaker Jeff Merkley, is showing the voters the difference between the red Gordon and blue Gordon. Merkley is sending the mailer, intended to go to deep blue Portland, to very red Eastern Oregon. Accompanying Smith’s borderline illegal mailer, was a letter from Merkley, hitting Smith hard for flip flopping:

The enclosed brochure was mailed from Smith’s U.S. Senate office at taxpayer expense. In it he touts work he claims to have done with two prominent Democrats: our other Senator, Ron Wyden, and Senator Hillary Clinton. Smith likes to tell people in Portland that he works closely with Hillary Clinton. Does he talk about his work with prominent Democrats like Hillary Clinton when he’s in your town?

That isn’t the way I will run my campaign. I’ll stand by my principles, no matter what. I won’t pretend to be anyone other than who I am, no matter which part of the state I might be visiting. That’s what a Senator for all Oregonians owes to the people he represents.

Hundreds of conservative voters will find that letter and Gordon Smith’s mailer in their mailboxes in the coming days. I have never lived in Eastern Oregon, but I bet that the people there feel just as strongly that the taxpayers shouldn’t finance Gordon Smith’s spin machine. Fortunately, Jeff Merkley is presenting Oregon voters with a straight shooting alternative.